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Latest Outlook
Outlook map for September 2022

September 2022 Hydrological Outlook

Period: From September 2022      Issued on 08.09.2022 using data to the end of August 2022

The outlook for September favours below normal river flows and groundwater levels across much of the country. For September–November, below normal river flows are likely in southern Britain, and normal to below normal flows in northern Britain. Groundwater levels are likely to be below normal in the far south, and normal to below normal elsewhere.

Rainfall:

Rainfall in August was significantly below average for the UK as a whole, and it was an exceptionally dry month for most of England and Wales.

The rainfall outlook (issued by the Met Office on 29.08.2022) for September suggests near-average rainfall is more likely than wet or dry, and the September-November Outlook slightly favours a wetter rather than drier autumn, although notes southern and eastern regions have an increased risk of dry weather continuing.

River flows:

River flows in August were below normal across most of the country, with normal range flows constrained to parts of northwest Britain. Across much of England and Wales, flows were notably or exceptionally low, the lowest on record in some cases.

River flows in September are likely to continue to be below normal across the country, with a likelihood of exceptionally low flows in parts of southern Britain – although a wetter start to September could be influential. The three month outlook indicates below normal flows in southern Britain and normal- to below-normal flows further north.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels in August were normal to below normal across all aquifers, with notably and occasionally exceptionally low levels in the far south.

Groundwater levels in September are likely to be normal to below normal across northern aquifer areas, and below normal further south (with exceptionally low levels persisting in some boreholes). The three month outlook suggests a similar picture, but with levels tending towards normal, away from the far south, although there is much uncertainty looking ahead into the recharge season.