Period: From June 2021 Issued on 08.06.2021 using data to the end of May 2021
The outlook for June and for the June–August period is for river flows to be normal to above normal in most parts of the UK, the exception being the north west of Scotland and Northern Ireland where normal to below normal flows are likely in June. Groundwater levels in June, and for the next three months, are likely to be normal to above normal across most of the UK, the exception being the south east of England where normal to below normal levels are expected.
May was exceptionally wet in many areas with twice the typical May rainfall across Wales, southwest England and large parts of north east Britain. Only in north west Scotland was rainfall below average. June has started with a spell of more settled, dry and warm weather.
The rainfall outlook for June (issued by the Met Office on 24.05.2021) suggests the chances of wet and dry conditions are similar to normal. Over the three month period to August, a similar picture is seen, with the chances of a wet or dry summer being similar to normal.
River flows in May were above normal across most of England and Wales, with exceptionally high flows in the west, and a number of new flow records in Wales. Flows were in the normal range in Northern Ireland and parts of southeast England.
River flows in June are likely to be normal to above normal across most of the UK, except in northwest Scotland where flows are likely to be normal to below normal. Over the three month period May-June-July similar conditions will prevail, with normal to above normal flows being the most likely outcome across the UK.
Groundwater levels in May showed a mixed picture. Normal to below normal levels in the Chalk of central southern England contrasted with normal to above normal levels in the Chalk further north. In most other aquifers, levels were above normal, and exceptionally so in some northern boreholes.
The outlook is broadly similar to the pattern for May, and consistent across both the 1-month and 3-month forecasts, with normal to below groundwater levels across a large part of the southern and central Chalk, and normal to above normal levels elsewhere, with some exceptionally high levels predicted in the Permo-Triassic of northern Britain.
Note that due to unforeseen circumstances no data are available for Scotland