Period: From August 2025 Issued on 11.08.2025 using data to the end of July 2025
Rainfall:
July rainfall for the UK was below average. Some areas of Wales and southwest England recorded less than half the July average. In western Scotland, northwest England and parts of southeast England (Kent), rainfall was above average. The forecast for August (issued by the Met Office on 28.07.2025) indicates an increased chance of dry conditions in August, particularly across southern areas. The August-October forecast suggests an increased likelihood of low pressure conditions associated with unsettled weather, especially in September and October. The overall chances of either dry or wet conditions over August-October as a whole are evenly balanced.
River flows:
River flows in July were widely in the below normal to notably low range across eastern Scotland, Wales and north-east, central and southern England. Exceptionally low flows were observed in parts of south Wales and southern England. In contrast, flows in northwestern areas were above normal, with notably high flows recorded in north-west England. The outlook for August suggest normal flows is most likely across northern and western areas with below normal to low flows persisting for catchments across eastern Scotland, Wales and north-east, central and southern England. The August-October outlook suggests a similar geographical pattern, with the continuation of below normal to low river flows across central and southern England. Elsewhere, normal flows is most likely for eastern Scotland and north-east England while normal to above normal flows are more likely for northwestern areas.
Groundwater:
Groundwater levels in July were generally in the normal to below normal range across the UK, with exceptionally low levels in south Wales and southern England. The outlook for August is for normal to below normal levels, with notably to exceptionally low levels for the southern Chalk and Carboniferous Limestones in central southern England, south Wales and the South Downs. Over August-October, normal to below normal levels are the most likely outcome, with levels trending towards the normal range.