Period: From August 2022 Issued on 08.08.2022 using data to the end of July 2022
The outlook for August and for the August—October period is for river flows to be below normal, exceptionally so in central and southern England. In northern and western areas of the UK, flows are likely to be normal to below normal. Groundwater levels in August are likely to be normal in central and northern UK, below normal elsewhere, and notably or exceptionally so in southern England and south Wales. Over the three month period (August—October), levels will follow a similar pattern, however there is uncertainty regarding the timing of the onset of the recharge season in autumn.
July received below average rainfall for almost all of the UK, with the exception of the far north of Scotland. Areas of southern and eastern England saw less than 10% of the average July rainfall, and for England as a whole it was the driest since 1935. The temperature outlook for August and August—October (issued by the Met Office on 01.08.2022) shows an increased likelihood of warmer than normal conditions, with an increased likelihood of heatwaves. The precipitation outlook for the same periods suggest that whilst average rainfall is forecasted, it is likely there will be a contrast between a wetter north-west and a drier south-east of the country.
River flows in July were below normal in most of the UK, exceptionally so in central and southern England. In north-west Britain, flows were mostly in the normal range, with some above normal flows in the far north of Scotland. River flows in August are likely to remain below normal for much of the UK, exceptionally so in central, southern and eastern England. Normal to below normal flows are expected in Scotland, Wales and north-west England. These patterns are broadly similar for the August—October period, albeit with a potential return to more normal conditions in north-west UK. It is likely flows will remain exceptionally low in central, southern and eastern England over the three month period
Groundwater levels in July were below normal across most of the country, with exceptionally low levels in southern England and south Wales. In August, groundwater levels are likely to be normal in central and northern UK, apart from the Chalk of Yorkshire where levels are likely to be below normal. Levels in southern England and south Wales will be below normal and notably or exceptionally low in the southern Chalk and Carboniferous Limestone in these areas. The three-month outlook is similar, however there is significant uncertainty in the timing of the onset of recharge in autumn.