Period: From September 2026    Issued on 09.09.2026 using data to the end of August 2026

Rainfall:

Rainfall in August was below average across much of the UK, except northwest Scotland and localised parts of central and eastern England. It was particularly dry across southern Britain, which saw little appreciable rainfall in the first half of August.
The Met Office seasonal forecast (issued on 1st September 2026) indicates a slightly higher tendency for September to be a wet month overall. The Outlook for autumn (September – November) indicates it is more likely to be wet than dry, with the latter part of the season seeing an increase in the potential for impacts from heavy rainfall. The current strong El Niño increases the confidence in this seasonal forecast relative to a typical autumn. 

River flows:

Rivers generally continued to decline through much of August, leading to widespread exceptionally low late-summer flows comparable with, or lower than, notable past droughts. Except for western Scotland, average flows for August were below normal across the UK and often notably or exceptionally low.
The September Outlook is for below normal flows across southern Britain and northeast Scotland, with current notably or exceptionally low flows likely to persist in many catchments. Elsewhere normal flows are most likely. The outlook for autumn also indicates a broad contrast, with below normal flows in the southeast (with notably or exceptionally low autumn flows possible, especially in groundwater-fed catchments) and normal to above normal flows in northern and western areas. The potential for above normal flows reflects the likelihood of a wetter late autumn in these responsive regions.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels in August were in the normal range or below normal, with notably low levels in parts of southern England and Wales. 
The September outlook indicates a similar picture, with normal to below normal levels predominating and notably or exceptionally low levels continuing in some localities in southern England and Wales. The outlook for autumn indicates a return to normal levels across most aquifer areas, but with below normal (and, locally, notably low) levels persisting in the Chalk of southeast England.