Period: From September 2023      Issued on 08.09.2023 using data to the end of August 2023

The outlook for September is for normal to above normal river flows in southern England, and normal to below normal for the rest of the country. Groundwater levels are expected to be mostly normal, except in the Southern Chalk and Jurassic Limestone where they are likely to be above normal. River flows and groundwater levels are expected to return to normal for the September–November period for most of the country.

Rainfall:

Rainfall in August for most of Great Britain was near average, though central England and southwestern Scotland experienced slightly below normal rainfall. Northern Ireland received slightly above normal rainfall.

The meteorological outlook (issued by the Met Office on 29.08.2023) for September shows an increased likelihood of having warmer conditions, with rainfall conditions likely to be close to normal for the time of year over the Sept-Nov period. However, the very dry start of the month suggests the overall conditions for September are now likely to be drier than normal.

River flows:

River flows in August were normal for most of Scotland, and normal to above normal for the rest of the country, except for an isolated area in East Anglia where flows were below normal.  

River flows in September are likely to be below normal in northeastern Scotland, and normal to below normal for most of the rest of country, except in southern England, where flows are expected to be normal to above normal. Flows are expected to return to normal for most of the country in the Sept-Nov period, except in northeastern Scotland and in southern England where they are likely to remain normal to below normal and normal to above normal respectively.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels in August were below normal in northern Scotland, and normal to above normal for the rest of the country. Some of the boreholes situated in the southern Chalk and Jurassic limestone experienced particularly high levels.

Over the next month, groundwater levels are expected to remain above normal in parts of the southern Chalk and Jurassic Limestone, whereas they are likely to be normal in most of the rest of the country, though normal to above normal or normal to below normal levels are expected for some isolated locations. Over the next 3 months levels in the south are expected to return towards normal.