Period: From August 2026    Issued on 10.08.2026 using data to the end of July 2026

Rainfall:

The lack of rainfall in July was unparalleled. It was the driest July on record for England and Wales, and the driest month ever recorded in South-East England, receiving just 2% of the 1991-2020 average rainfall. Conditions were drier than average across most of the UK with only northwest Scotland experiencing slightly above-average rainfall.  
The Met Office UK 3-month Outlook (issued 27th July 2026) indicates an increased likelihood (1.5x chance) of a dry August to October period. The chance of rain and wind related impacts is forecast to increase later in the three-month period. Temperatures are also expected to be above average, with a 2.3x chance of a warm three-month period, particularly during August and early September. Continued warm conditions are likely to increase evaporation, limiting the benefit of rainfall that does occur.

River flows:

River flows declined rapidly across the UK during July, with only catchments in the far north of Scotland remaining above normal. Flows in many catchments fell from normal conditions in June to exceptionally low flows in July, with several record-low flows reported across England and Wales.
August river flows are expected to remain below normal to exceptionally low across England, Wales and north-east Scotland, with a high likelihood of record-low August flows in several catchments. Conditions are expected to be less severe in northern England and southern Scotland where flows are likely to be normal to below normal. In north-west Scotland, flows are expected to remain normal to above normal. Over the next three months, normal to below normal conditions are likely to persist across much of the UK, prolonging ongoing drought impacts and increasing pressure on water resources.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels continued to decline in July from their June position, showing predominantly normal to notably low levels across the UK, though no records were broken.
In August, groundwater levels are expected to be normal to below normal in the Chalk, and Jurassic limestone aquifers of England, with some notably low levels in the Carboniferous Limestone in south Wales. Levels in the Permo-Triassic sandstones of England and southern Scotland are likely to remain within the normal range. Over the next three months, groundwater levels are likely to stabilise or continue to decline, depending on local hydrogeological conditions.