Period: From June 2026 Issued on 08.06.2026 using data to the end of May 2026
Rainfall:
May rainfall was below average for the UK (78%), with dry conditions across Scotland, Wales and central and southern England. Large parts of south-east England received less than half of the average monthly rainfall. In contrast, rainfall was average or above average in northern England, with particularly high rainfall in Northumberland.
The one-month forecast for June (issued by the Met Office on 29.05.2026) indicates the chances of a wet or dry month are balanced. Over the next three months, the forecast indicates that near-average rainfall is most likely, although a wet three-month period is more probable than a dry one.
River flows:
River flows in May were widely below normal across the UK, with notably and exceptionally low flows prevalent in East Anglia and eastern Scotland. Flows in Wales, north-west England and western Scotland were in the normal range.
Following a dry May and depleted catchment storage in some areas, the outlook is for below normal flows across central and southern England and eastern Scotland, although flows may be bolstered to the normal range in groundwater-dominated catchments of the south-east. Elsewhere, flows in north-west England and western Scotland are likely to be in the normal range. The outlook for the next three months (June-August) is for below normal flows to persist in central and southern England, while flows in northern Britain are likely to be normal.
Groundwater:
Groundwater levels at the end of May were mostly normal to above normal in most principal aquifers, except for eastern Britain, Northern Ireland and south Wales, where some boreholes recorded notably or exceptionally low levels.
The outlook for June is for groundwater levels to remain normal to above normal across much of the UK. Above normal levels are likely for some boreholes in the southern, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire Chalk, while levels in south Wales are expected to be below normal to exceptionally low. Over the next three months, groundwater levels are likely to remain normal to above normal.