Period: From July 2026    Issued on 08.07.2026 using data to the end of June 2026

Rainfall:

June rainfall was above average for the UK (117%) with parts of Northern Ireland, western Scotland, northwest England, and pockets of southeast England receiving more than 170% of the average monthly rainfall. In contrast, parts of north Wales, eastern England and eastern Scotland received below average rainfall.

The forecast (issued by the Met Office on 29.06.2026) indicates balanced chances of a wet or a dry July. Over July-September, the forecast indicates that near average rainfall remains most likely with the potential for large regional variations and an increased chance of a hot 3-month period.

River flows:

River flows in June were above normal to notably high across western Scotland, Northern Ireland, northwest England, and southern Wales, with record high June flows recorded on the River Cree (southwest Scotland). Elsewhere, river flows were normal to below normal with parts of northeast Scotland and East Anglia recording notably low flows.

The outlook for July is that these patterns will largely continue with flows in northern Wales, northwestern England, western Scotland and Northern Ireland likely to be in the normal to above normal range. Elsewhere flows are likely to be normal to below normal, with the potential for current notably low flows to continue in some areas. Over the July-September period this pattern is likely to persist, with normal to above normal flows likely in northwest Britain and Northern Ireland, and normal to below normal flows elsewhere.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels at the end of June were normal to below normal in most principal aquifers except for one borehole in eastern Scotland which recorded notably low levels, and southwest Scotland where some boreholes recorded above average levels.

The outlook indicates that groundwater levels are likely to be in the normal range across most principal aquifers in July. Levels in southern Wales are likely to be below normal, while levels in northern England and southern Scotland are likely to be normal to above normal. Over the next three months this is likely to persist though parts of central England are likely to see normal to below normal levels.