Period: From November 2024      Issued on 08.11.2024 using data to the end of October 2024

Rainfall:

October rainfall for the UK was below average. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland saw below average rainfall, with some areas recording less than 70% of the October average. In England, rainfall was average, although some areas registered above normal rainfall, e.g. north-east, and southern England. The forecast (issued by the Met Office on 28.10.2024) shows that the chances of a dry or wet period for November, and for November – January is similar to normal. Although some uncertainty remains, the wettest conditions during the next three months are likely to be over northern and western parts of the UK.

River flows:

River flows in October were above normal in central and southern England, exceptionally so at many sites in this area, with some registering record October mean flows. A handful of sites recorded over 400% of the average October mean flows in southern England e.g. in the Cotswolds and Thames Valley. Elsewhere, flows in Scotland, Northern Ireland and north Wales were below normal. The outlook for November is for normal to above normal flows in central and southern England with exceptionally high flows expected to persist in some groundwater dominated catchments. Elsewhere, normal to below normal flows are expected. The outlook for the November – January period is similar.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels in October were generally normal or above normal across the country. Record high October groundwater levels were registered at sites in central and southern England and in West Yorkshire. The outlook for November is for above normal levels, for most of the UK, with the exception in the Chalk in East Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and Sussex and in the Permo-Triassic sandstone in South Wales and the Central Midlands where normal levels are most likely. Over the three-month outlook, groundwater levels are generally likely to be in the above normal range across the country.