Period: From March 2026    Issued on 09.03.2026 using data to the end of February 2026

Rainfall: 

February’s rainfall was above average for the UK, with 123% of average recorded. Much of England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and eastern Scotland recorded more than 170% of their average February rainfall. Rainfall for western Scotland was below normal, with large areas seeing less than 70% of the February average. The long-range forecast (issued by the Met Office on 23.02.2026) indicates a slight signal for a wet March, with a stronger signal for mild temperatures. Over March-May, the forecast suggests that the next three months are likely to be warm with a normal chance of wet conditions, and a slightly increased chance of average rainfall. 

River flows:

River flows in February were below normal for northern Scotland and in the normal range for western Scotland, northwestern England, northern Wales, and parts of East Anglia. Elsewhere, February river flows were above normal to notably high, with some catchments on the south coast of England registering new record high February flows.
The outlook for March indicates that above normal flows are likely across much of central and southern England, particularly in groundwater-dominated catchments in the south of England. For the rest of the UK, river flows are likely to be normal to above normal for March. The outlook for Spring (March-May) is for river flows across much of the UK to be within the normal range, except for parts of southern and central England where above normal flows are likely to persist.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels at the end of February were above normal or notably high in most aquifers, except for East Anglia and northern Scotland where some boreholes recorded normal or below normal levels. The outlook indicates that groundwater levels in the southern Chalk, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire Chalk, and Jurassic limestones are likely to be above normal to high over the coming month. Normal to above normal levels are likely elsewhere. Over the next three months, groundwater levels in the southern Chalk are likely to remain above normal to high. Across the rest of the UK, levels are likely to be normal to above normal for the March-May period.