Period: From December 2025    Issued on 05.12.2025 using data to the end of November 2025

Rainfall: 

Rainfall in November was exceptionally high across much of the UK, with peak values at 170 percent of average across central and northern England and Wales. Below average rainfall occurred in the south-east and parts of Scotland. The forecast (issued by the Met Office on 01.12.2025) indicates a slight lean towards a wet December (1.3 times the normal chance), with the chances of a dry or wet season for the UK as a whole being close to normal. The chances of a cold season are lower than normal, but cold weather impacts are still possible at times.

River flows:

November river flows responded to the intense rainfall, resulting in recovery of flows across most of the UK to normal to above normal conditions. Below normal flows persist in some chalk fed catchments in the south-east, whilst flows across central and northern England and Wales rose to above normal to high, or even exceptionally high levels.
The outlook for December is for this pattern to broadly persist, with normal to below normal flows likely in parts of the south-east and Scotland, with normal to above normal flows being likely elsewhere. With continued wet conditions expected in December, flows in some catchments may be notably or exceptionally high in central and northern England and Wales. For December-January-February as a whole, normal river flows are expected across the majority of the UK, though localised below and above normal levels may persist through the winter.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels followed a similar spatial pattern in November, though were more extreme in places. Levels in south-eastern England and northern Scotland were normal to exceptionally low, whilst levels across central and northern England, Wales and southern Scotland were normal to exceptionally high, with a few localised exceptions. Groundwater levels at Skirwith on the Permo-Triassic sandstone were the highest ever recorded for December. 
The outlook for groundwater levels is also closely aligned with the rainfall pattern, with normal to notably low levels expected in the south-east for December, and normal to below normal levels over winter as a whole. Across the rest of the UK groundwater levels are expected to be normal to exceptionally high in December, and normal to above normal over the next three months.