Period: From November 2025      Issued on 11.11.2025 using data to the end of October 2025

Rainfall: 

October’s rainfall was above average across much of the UK, although this masks notable spatial contrasts. In Northern Ireland, western Scotland, and the far south-east of England, rainfall was above average, with some areas, such as parts of Northern Ireland and the Western Isles, recording more than 170% of their average rainfall. Elsewhere, rainfall was below average across most of England and central and eastern Scotland. The Met Office forecast (issued 27.10.2025) indicates a slight signal for a warm and wet November. Over the November–January period, the forecast suggests colder conditions than in recent years, with an increased likelihood of a drier-than-average three-month period.

River flows:

River flows in October were generally normal to below normal across most of the country, with some above normal flows recorded in Northern Ireland and north-west Britain. In eastern Britain and in central and southern England, flows remained below normal, with some exceptionally low flows in southern and eastern England (e.g., the Coln and the Stringside). The outlook for November suggests these patterns will largely continue, with flows in northern and western England, western Scotland, and Northern Ireland likely to remain in the normal to above normal range. Rivers in southern and eastern Britain are likely to have normal to below normal flows, particularly in groundwater-dominated rivers that rely on aquifer recharge. This pattern is likely to persist over the November–January period, and if drier-than-average weather materialises, rivers in central and southern areas may begin 2026 below normal.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels at the end of October remained low in many of the principal aquifers, particularly those in southern and eastern England and central Scotland. Elsewhere, levels were largely normal, with only a few index sites registering above normal. The outlook indicates that groundwater levels are likely to remain in the normal to below normal range through November, with potential recovery to normal in most areas over the next three months. However, below normal to low conditions may persist, especially in eastern England.