Period: From November 2023      Issued on 07.11.2023 using data to the end of October 2023

The outlook for November and for Nov-Jan is for normal to above normal river flows on the eastern side of the country, and mostly normal for the western half, with the exception of some rivers in north-western Scotland where the flows are likely to be normal to below normal. For groundwater, the levels are likely to be above normal at most sites for the next 3 months.

Rainfall:

Rainfall in October for most of the UK was above normal, with over 150% the average precipitation for a large proportion of the country, except for western Scotland where it was below  average.

The meteorological outlook (issued by the Met Office on 30.10.2023) for November and the November-January period shows similar likelihoods of wet and dry conditions. November has had a wet start with storm Ciarán bringing widespread rainfall, especially in the south of England.

River flows:

River flows in October were normal to above normal for most of the UK, except for western Scotland where they were mostly normal.  

River flows in November are likely to be normal to above normal for the eastern side of the UK, and normal on the western side, including Wales and Northern Ireland, except for north-western Scotland where flows are likely to be normal to below normal. This pattern is expected to persist for the Nov-Jan period.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels in October were generally normal to above normal across the UK, with levels in the Lincolnshire, Wessex, and South Downs Chalk most responsive to October’s high rainfall.

Over the next month, groundwater levels are likely to be above normal to notably high at most sites, exceptionally so in some locations in Wessex and the South Downs Chalk with a risk of groundwater flooding. Groundwater levels in the more-slowly responding Chalk of Yorkshire, the Chilterns, Berkshire Downs, London, and Kent regions are anticipated to continue rising to reach notably high or exceptionally high levels by December. The three-month forecasts are similar with above normal to notably high levels forecast for much of the UK.