Period: From October 2024 Issued on 09.10.2024 using data to the end of September 2024
Rainfall:
September rainfall was average overall across the UK, however this masks some vast spatial differences. Central and southern England experienced widespread, and in cases record breaking monthly totals as large areas of central England registered more than 300% of the September average. Conversely, further north, rainfall was below average with some areas, including western Scotland, receiving less than half of the expected rainfall. The forecast (issued by the Met Office on 30.09.2024) shows that for the chances of a dry or wet period (October– December) is similar to normal. Although some uncertainty remains, the wettest conditions during this period are likely to be over northern and western parts of the UK, particularly as we move into a La Niña phase.
River flows:
River flows in September were above normal in central and southern England, exceptionally so at many sites in this area, with some registering their record September mean flows. Many sites recorded over 300% of the average September mean flows. Elsewhere, flows were in the normal range, with some catchments recording below normal flows in western Scotland and Northern Ireland. The outlook for October is for above normal flows in central and southern England with many rivers in this area seeing exceptionally high flows. Elsewhere, normal flows are expected. The outlook for the October–December period is similar, although with normal to above normal flows expected across the country.
Groundwater:
Groundwater levels in October were mainly normal or above normal across the country. Record high September groundwater levels were registered at sites in central and southern England and in the Scottish borders. The outlook for October is for above normal levels, for most of the UK, with the exception of east Yorkshire and south Wales where normal levels are most likely. Over the three-month period, groundwater levels are likely to be in the normal to above normal range across the country.