Period: From December 2023      Issued on 08.12.2023 using data to the end of November 2023

The outlook for December is for normal to above normal river flows, except for in parts of the west where normal flows are favoured, and for above normal groundwater levels across most of the country The three month outlook is for a very similar picture, with a similar east/west contrast in river flows and above normal groundwater levels. 

Rainfall:

November rainfall was above average across southern England and parts of northern England and eastern Scotland, near average in central England and Wales and below average for Northern Ireland and much of Scotland (especially the northwest).

The forecast (issued by the Met Office on 27 11 2023 for December favours near average conditions but indicates that the chance of a wet month is higher than a dry one The December February forecast is similar, but with the probability of wet conditions being lower than for the one month forecast. 

River flows:

River flows in November were normal in north Wales and across most of Scotland, with below normal flows in some western catchments Elsewhere flows were above normal, and notably high or exceptionally high flows were widespread in southern and eastern England.

The forecast for December is for normal river flows in most western areas, with potential for below normal flows to persist in parts of northwest Scotland For eastern areas, river flows are likely to be normal to above normal, with a higher likelihood of above normal or even notably/exceptionally high flows in parts of southern England and eastern Scotland The three month outlook is for a similar geographical contrast, but with a lower likelihood of above normal or exceptional flows.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels in November were normal in Wales and Scotland, but largely above normal elsewhere, with exceptionally high levels across the Chalk aquifer.

The outlook is for above normal groundwater levels across most of the UK, with notably or exceptionally high levels likely in parts of the Chalk of southern and northeast England, and in the Jurassic limestones The three month outlook is very similar, but with a lower likelihood of widespread notably or exceptionally high levels.