Period: From May 2026    Issued on 11.05.2026 using data to the end of April 2026

Rainfall: 

April rainfall was below average for the UK (77%), with particularly dry conditions for England. Large parts of central southern England received less than one third of the average rainfall (fourth driest for the Anglian region since 1890). In contrast, above average rainfall was registered for western Scotland, with particularly high rainfall over the Western Isles.

The one-month forecast for May (issued by the Met Office on 27.04.2026) indicates near average rainfall is the most likely scenario, although a wet May is more likely than a dry one. Over the next three months, the forecast indicates a higher than normal chance of a hot May-July with near-average rainfall most likely, although a wet 3-month period is more probable than dry.

River flows:

River flows in April were widely below normal across central and southern England and for some catchments in eastern Scotland. Flows in western Scotland and some groundwater-dominated catchments in the far south were in the above normal to notably high range.

Following a dry April, the outlook is for below normal to notably low flows across central southern England and eastern Scotland. Elsewhere, flows are likely to be in the normal range. The outlook for the next three months (May-July) is for below normal to notably low flows to persist in central southern England while flows in northwestern areas are likely to be normal to above normal.

Groundwater:

Groundwater levels at the end of April were normal to above normal in most principal aquifers, except for eastern Scotland and south Wales where some boreholes recorded notably or exceptionally low levels, respectively.

The outlook for May is for groundwater levels to remain normal to above normal across the UK. Notably high levels are likely for some boreholes in the Southern, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire Chalk while levels at South Wales is expected be below normal to exceptionally low. Over the next three months, groundwater levels are likely to remain normal to above normal, with the exception for South Wales where levels may recover but are likely to remain in the normal to below normal range.