Period: From April 2026 Issued on 09.04.2026 using data to the end of March 2026
Rainfall:
After a wet start to 2026 in many areas in January and February, March’s rainfall was below normal across much of England, Wales, eastern Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland. The driest areas saw half their average rainfall. In contrast, higher than normal rainfall was observed in northwestern Scotland and north-west England, which in a few areas exceeded 150% of their average rainfall.
The forecast (issued by the Met Office on 30.03.2026) indicates a signal for an increased chance of a drier-than usual April, with warmer temperatures more probable than cooler. Over April-June, the forecast indicates that increased chances of warm temperatures are very likely to continue, but rainfall is likely to be near-average.
River flows:
March’s river flows were normal, with some rivers still showing above-normal flows persisting from their higher levels over the preceding months. These were most evident in the groundwater-dominated catchments of southern England. Above normal flows were also seen in the regions that experienced higher than usual rainfall in northwestern Scotland and north-west England.
The Outlook for April is that flows are likely to remain normal to above normal in western Scotland and in southern England, with flows elsewhere declining to the normal to below normal range. Over April-June, these patterns are likely to persist, although more of the (currently above normal) groundwater-fed catchments in counties along the south coast of England are likely to return to their normal range.
Groundwater:
Groundwater levels at the end of March remain normal to above normal in many of the principal aquifers, especially in the Jurassic limestone and southern chalk. In the parts of the chalk aquifer in Oxfordshire, Berkshire, and Hampshire, levels are notably high.
The Outlook is that these conditions are likely to persist through April. In most areas levels are likely to decline and become normal over the period April-June. Groundwater levels in the southern chalk are likely to remain normal to above normal over April-June.