July 2016


Period: From July 2016      Issued on 12.07.2016 using data to the end of June 2016

Summary

The outlook for July is for groundwater levels to be normal to above normal throughout the UK with the exception of the English-Scottish borders where levels are expected to be above normal. In July river flows are likely to be in the normal range in much of the UK, the exceptions being northeast Scotland and southeastern parts of the UK where normal to above normal flows are most likely. In the next three months river flows and groundwater levels are likely to follow the same broad pattern but with normal flows becoming more probable.

Rainfall

Rainfall for June was above average for the UK as a whole (147% of the 1971-2000 average). However, rainfall was average, or below, in many places including western and southern Scotland and northeast England

The rainfall outlook for July (released by the Met Office on 24th June 2016) is that above-average precipitation is considered slightly more probable than below-average. This tendency is related to the slightly higher-than-usual chances of experiencing winds from the Atlantic. For July-August-September, the forecast for UK precipitation suggests that the chances of above- and below-average rainfall are fairly balanced. The probability that UK precipitation for July-August-September will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

River flows

River flows in June showed marked geographical contrasts. There were normal to above normal flows in most of England and Wales, and below normal flows in northeast England and western Scotland.  River flows in northeast Scotland were above normal.

In July river flows are likely to be normal to above normal in northeast Scotland and southeastern parts of the UK. Elsewhere river flows are likely to be normal. In the longer term normal flows are most likely across the UK, although above normal flows remain possible in southeastern parts of the UK.

Groundwater

As the summer groundwater recession continues, groundwater levels in most aquifers are currently at normal or above normal levels, and with the notably high levels in the northern Permo-Triassic sandstones persisting.

Under the highest rainfall forecast, levels at some sites on the Chalk of the South Downs and Wessex may become notably or exceptionally high for the season. The outlook is stable with the 3 month outlook very similar to the current 1 month outlook. 

Further information - July 2016

Comprehensive further information that supports the production of the Hydrological Outlook UK is available here.